VICI Properties (NYSE: VICI) stands out as an alpha stock combining stable cash flow with long term upside potential. With projected valuations offering up to 235% upside and a dividend payout ratio of 85%, VICI is one of the best stock to invest in for beginners seeking public stock opportunities. A must-watch in your stock search if you’re looking for strong buy stocks today.
All figures are in millions of USD unless otherwise stated.
I. DCF Valuation — Bear Case
- EBITDA Growth Rate: 2%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 1.5%
- Discount Rate: 9%
- Sum of PV of UFCF (2024–2029): $14,452
- Terminal Value (TV): $52,512
- PV of Terminal Value: $34,129
- Enterprise Value (EV): $48,581
- Net Debt: $17,348
- Equity Value: $31,233
- Shares Outstanding: 1,056M
- Intrinsic Value per Share: $29.58
II. DCF Valuation — Base Case
- EBITDA Growth Rate: 4%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5%
- Discount Rate: 7.5%
- Sum of PV of UFCF (2024–2029): $15,921
- Terminal Value (TV): $87,691
- PV of Terminal Value: $61,082
- Enterprise Value (EV): $77,002
- Net Debt: $17,348
- Equity Value: $59,654
- Shares Outstanding: 1,056M
- Intrinsic Value per Share: $56.49
III. DCF Valuation — Bull Case
- EBITDA Growth Rate: 6%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5%
- Discount Rate: 6.5%
- Sum of PV of UFCF (2024–2029): $17,322
- Terminal Value (TV): $162,382
- PV of Terminal Value: $118,519
- Enterprise Value (EV): $135,842
- Net Debt: $17,348
- Equity Value: $118,494
- Shares Outstanding: 1,056M
- Intrinsic Value per Share: $112.21
IV. Valuation Summary and Upside Potential
- Current Price: $33.43
- Bear Case Intrinsic Value: $29.58 → -11.5% downside
- Base Case Intrinsic Value: $56.49 → 69% upside
- Bull Case Intrinsic Value: $112.21 → 236% upside
V. Dividend Sustainability Analysis
- Dividend per Share: $1.71
- Shares Outstanding: 1,056M
- Total Dividends Paid: 1,056 × 1.71 = $1,806M
- Free Cash Flow (Used for Analysis): $2,424M
- Dividend Payout Ratio (FCF Basis):
- $1,806 / $2,424 = 0.745 or ~74.5%
- Assessment:
- Payout ratio is moderately high
- Company retains around 25% of FCF after dividends
- Conclusion: Dividend appears generally sustainable, but any pressure on FCF could challenge future raises
VI. Summary View
This report is based purely on data-driven modeling and presents a range of fair values based on different economic conditions and growth outlooks.
- DCF Highlights: Base and bull scenarios show strong upside relative to market price
- Dividend View: Payout is high but manageable
- Quantitative Takeaway: VICI appears undervalued in the long run under modest or strong growth assumptions
Valuation Range: $29.58 – $112.21
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