Explore a detailed DCF-based valuation analysis of FOX stock across bear, base, and bull case scenarios. This article dives into FOX’s upside potential, financial health, dividend sustainability, and whether it ranks among the best stock opportunities for long-term investors. If you’re looking to understand share valuation or are just starting your journey in the stock market, this breakdown offers valuable insight into buying into shares that may be underpriced and offer strong value.
DCF VALUATION – BEAR CASE
- Discount rate: 9%
- EBITDA growth rate: 2%
- Terminal growth rate: 1.5%
- Sum of present values: $9,248 million
- Terminal value (TV): $33,428 million
- Present value of TV: $21,726 million
- Enterprise value (EV): $30,973 million
- Net debt: $568 million
- Equity value: $30,405 million
- Shares outstanding: 453 million
- Implied Share Price: $67.12
DCF VALUATION – BASE CASE
- Discount rate: 7.5%
- EBITDA growth rate: 4%
- Terminal growth rate: 2.5%
- Sum of present values: $10,246 million
- Terminal value (TV): $56,397 million
- Present value of TV: $39,284 million
- Enterprise value (EV): $49,530 million
- Net debt: $568 million
- Equity value: $48,962 million
- Shares outstanding: 453 million
- Implied Share Price: $108.08
DCF VALUATION – BULL CASE
- Discount rate: 6.5%
- EBITDA growth rate: 6%
- Terminal growth rate: 3.5%
- Sum of present values: $11,209 million
- Terminal value (TV): $105,383 million
- Present value of TV: $76,917 million
- Enterprise value (EV): $88,127 million
- Net debt: $568 million
- Equity value: $87,559 million
- Shares outstanding: 453 million
- Implied Share Price: $193.27
Dividend Sustainability Analysis
- Dividend per share: $0.54
- Free cash flow used: $2,386 million
- Total dividend outflow: 453 million × $0.54 = ~$245 million
- Dividend payout ratio: 0.25
✅ FOX’s dividend appears safe and well-covered by free cash flow, with a healthy payout ratio of 25%, allowing room for future increases or reinvestments.
Valuation Summary & Upside Potential
| Case | Implied Price | Upside from $52.12 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $67.12 | +28.8% 📉 |
| Base | $108.08 | +107.4% 📈 |
| Bull | $193.27 | +270.8% 🚀 |
Valuation Range
- Bear Case: $67.12
- Base Case: $108.08
- Bull Case: $193.27
FOX Corporation offers a valuation range of $67–$193, implying strong upside potential from current levels. Even under conservative assumptions, the stock appears undervalued.
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